I’m a PhD economist and research leader with 14 years at the Bank of England, where I am Research Lead in the Financial Stability Strategy and Risk Directorate. My work sits at the meeting point of housing markets, the financial system and policy, and is driven by one question: how does financial regulation land in practice, for lenders, for borrowers and for the wider economy?

I choose the method to fit the question, and my work spans theory, empirical analysis and agent-based modelling. My theoretical work builds on mainstream asset-pricing models. In a sole-authored paper, I extend the noise-trader framework to the housing market and show how housing futures trading can reduce house price volatility; the paper was later cited by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller. Empirically, I work with large-scale granular data, from the full UK mortgage register to loan-level records of more than 14 million mortgages. With these data I identify how policies such as capital requirements and loan-to-income limits shape lending, risk-taking and outcomes for different groups of borrowers. I have also shown that UK banks more exposed to mortgages before the global financial crisis cut their lending to businesses more after it, work cited by Nobel laureate Ben Bernanke.

Where a policy has not yet been introduced and counterfactual analysis is needed, or where heterogeneity, non-linear dynamics and interactions between agents shape the outcome, I build agent-based models. The UK housing model I co-developed with the University of Oxford has featured in senior policymakers’ speeches and been adapted by four other central banks.

My research has been published in journals including the Review of Financial Studies, the Journal of Financial Intermediation, the Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization and the Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

Alongside my own research, I’ve spent much of my career creating the conditions for good research to thrive. As Research Lead, and earlier as Acting Research Lead in the Prudential Policy Directorate, I have set research strategy, redesigned research governance and led a shift towards research that connects more closely with policymaking. I also coach and develop researchers and serve as a Staff Working Paper editor. Internationally, I represented the Bank on the Basel Committee’s Research Task Force and co-founded ABM4Policy, a network that now brings together central banks, the ECB, the IMF and academics working on agent-based modelling for policy. Most recently, I co-led an AI workstream exploring how new tools can support financial-stability analysis.

Before joining the Bank of England, I worked at the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, analysing borrower-level credit exposures. I hold a PhD in Economics from the European University Institute in Florence, including a year in the European Doctoral Programme at Universitat Pompeu Fabra in Barcelona, and an MSc and BSc in Economics from Middle East Technical University in Ankara.

I’m currently working on housing affordability through shared ownership and on the design of bank capital requirements in an agent-based model of the UK banking sector. If any of this overlaps with what you’re working on, I’d love to hear from you.

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